TODO.md

• Animated GIF

  • output map photos for each years
    • Annotation for each time frame
    • Moving Dot in Timeline
  • combine to GIF

• Time Component Decomposition Analysis

  • Type of Series
    • Additive
  • Decomposition plot
  • Trend:
    • Line charts
  • Seasonal & stationarity
    • Seasonal plot
    • Correlogram

• Forecasting Method

  • Naive
    • Seasonal Naive Method
  • Exponential Smoothing
    • Holt-Winter's
  • Decomposition
  • Time series regression
    • Seasonal Time Series Regression
  • ARIMA

• Methodology & Literature review

  • In what condition, this method is better?

Method | Short-term | Trend | Seasonal --- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: Naive | / | | | | Naive with trend / Drift | / | / | | Seasonal Naive | / | | / | Average Forecast | / | | | Average Change Model | / | | | Average Percent Change Model | / | / | | Single Exponential Smoothing | | | | Double Exponential Smoothing | | / | | Holt's Method | | / | | ARRES | | | | Holt-Winter's | | / | / | Decomposition | | / | / | Time Series Regression | | / | | Seasonal Time Series Regression | | / | / | ARIMA | | / | / |

• Model Selection criteria
  • MSE
  • R2
  • AIC
  • SIC